In the aftermath of its world premiere at Cannes, where it received lackluster reviews with a 50% Rotten rating, Disney/Lucasfilm’s Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny is currently projected to have a domestic opening of $60 million or more.
The movie is set to release on June 30, just before Independence Day, which provides a potential five-day window for its theatrical run.
Compared to the previous installment, 2008’s Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, Dial of Destiny’s projected three-day opening falls short of the $100.1 million earned by its predecessor. This latest sequel is said to be the final chapter in the entire Indiana Jones franchise.
While Crystal Skull opened on a Thursday over Memorial Day weekend, accumulating a total of $151.9 million over five days, Dial of Destiny faces different circumstances. Logan director James Mangold took over as the director for the finale, replacing franchise architect Steven Spielberg.
Currently, Dial of Destiny’s audience tracking indicates a stronger interest among older male viewers rather than younger ones. This has led some industry observers to draw comparisons to the recent James Bond film, No Time to Die ($55.2 million), and Mission: Impossible – Fallout from 2018 ($61.2 million).
However, predicting a $70 million start for Dial of Destiny seems like a stretch. It is worth noting that Lionsgate’s John Wick: Chapter 4 opened to $73.8 million with double the level of audience tracking metrics compared to Dial of Destiny.
Disney will need to ramp up their marketing efforts in the coming weeks to generate more interest from younger male viewers, especially with competition from other films like Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, currently in theaters, and Warner Bros’ DC film, The Flash, scheduled for release on June 16.
However, the negative word-of-mouth from Cannes poses a significant challenge. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, which received mixed reviews, ended up with a 77% certified fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes and a B CinemaScore. In contrast, the previous installment, Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade from 1989, garnered an 84% certified fresh rating and an A CinemaScore.
Despite the mixed reception, a $60 million three-day opening for Dial of Destiny would be the second-best start for the Indiana Jones franchise. In the modern box office era, Last Crusade opened to $29.3 million over a three-day period ($46.9 million over an extended Memorial Day weekend) at 2,327 theaters.
In 1984, Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom debuted with a $25.3 million three-day opening ($42.2 million over an extended Memorial Day weekend) at 1,687 theaters. Going further back to 1981, Raiders of the Lost Ark followed a different release strategy. It opened with $8.3 million at 1,078 theaters and went on to earn $179.6 million by January 1982, with an initial cumulative gross of $212.2 million and a lifetime gross of $248.1 million.
Please note that the information provided here is a summary of existing reports and does not represent personal opinions or assessments.